A new policy science paradigm for emerging population trends and issues

[Δε διατίθεται περίληψη / no abstract available][Δε διατίθεται περίληψη / no abstract available

Automatic Verification of Erlang-Style Concurrency

This paper presents an approach to verify safety properties of Erlang-style, higher-order concurrent programs automatically. Inspired by Core Erlang, we introduce Lambda-Actor, a prototypical functional language with pattern-matching algebraic data types, augmented with process creation and asynchronous message-passing primitives. We formalise an abstract model of Lambda-Actor programs called Actor Communicating System (ACS) which has a natural interpretation as a vector addition system, for which some verification problems are decidable. We give a parametric abstract interpretation framework for Lambda-Actor and use it to build a polytime computable, flow-based, abstract semantics of Lambda-Actor programs, which we then use to bootstrap the ACS construction, thus deriving a more accurate abstract model of the input program. We have constructed Soter, a tool implementation of the verification method, thereby obtaining the first fully-automatic, infinite-state model checker for a core fragment of Erlang. We find that in practice our abstraction technique is accurate enough to verify an interesting range of safety properties. Though the ACS coverability problem is Expspace-complete, Soter can analyse these verification problems surprisingly efficiently.Comment: 12 pages plus appendix, 4 figures, 1 table. The tool is available at http://mjolnir.cs.ox.ac.uk/soter

Prognostication and Bioethics

Sociolog

Static Trace-Based Deadlock Analysis for Synchronous Mini-Go

We consider the problem of static deadlock detection for programs in the Go programming language which make use of synchronous channel communications. In our analysis, regular expressions extended with a fork operator capture the communication behavior of a program. Starting from a simple criterion that characterizes traces of deadlock-free programs, we develop automata-based methods to check for deadlock-freedom. The approach is implemented and evaluated with a series of examples

Guiding Dynamic Symbolic Execution Toward Unverified Program Executions

Most techniques to detect program errors, such as testing, code reviews, and static program analysis, do not fully verify all possible executions of a program. They leave executions unverified when they do not check certain properties, fail to verify properties, or check properties under certain unsound assumptions such as the absence of arithmetic overflow. In this paper, we present a technique to complement partial verification results by automatic test case generation. In contrast to existing work, our technique supports the common case that the verification results are based on unsound assumptions. We annotate programs to reflect which executions have been verified, and under which assumptions. These annotations are then used to guide dynamic symbolic execution toward unverified program executions. Our main technical contribution is a code instrumentation that causes dynamic symbolic execution to abort tests that lead to verified executions, to prune parts of the search space, and to prioritize tests that cover more properties that are not fully verified. We have implemented our technique for the .NET static analyzer Clousot and the dynamic symbolic execution tool Pex. It produces smaller test suites (by up to 19.2%), covers more unverified executions (by up to 7.1%), and reduces testing time (by up to 52.4%) compared to combining Clousot and Pex without our technique

Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population

[EN] Electronic commerce (EC) has numerous advantages. It allows saving time when we purchase an item, offers the possibility of review without depending on the schedules of traditional stores, access to a wider variety and quantity of articles, in many cases, with lower prices, etc. Based upon mathematical epidemiology tenets strongly related to social behavior able to describe the influence of peers, in this paper we propose an age-group dynamic model with population varying size based on a system of difference equations to study the evolution of the frequent users of EC over time in Spain. Using data from surveys retrieved from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we use and design computational algorithms to perform a probabilistic estimation of the model parameters that allow the model output to capture the data uncertainty. Then, we will be able to perform a precise prediction with uncertainty.This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P and by the European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010.Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2019). Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population. Advances in Complex Systems. 22(4):1950009-1-1950009-17. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525919500097S1950009-11950009-17224Bettencourt, L. (1997). Customer voluntary performance: Customers as partners in service delivery. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 383-406. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(97)90024-5Brauer, F., & Castillo-Chávez, C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. Texts in Applied Mathematics. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3516-1Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured mathematical modeling approach to short-term diffusion of electronic commerce in Spain. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1045-1051. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.030Hethcote, H. W. (2000). The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases. SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653. doi:10.1137/s0036144500371907Yanhui, L., & Siming, Z. (2007). Competitive dynamics of e-commerce web sites. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 31(5), 912-919. doi:10.1016/j.apm.2006.03.029Mahajan, V., Muller, E., & Bass, F. M. (1991). New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research. Diffusion of Technologies and Social Behavior, 125-177. doi:10.1007/978-3-662-02700-4_6Turban, E., Outland, J., King, D., Lee, J. K., Liang, T.-P., & Turban, D. C. (2018). Electronic Commerce 2018. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-58715-

Dynamics of Locally Coupled Oscillators with Next-Nearest-Neighbor Interaction

A theoretical description of decentralized dynamics within linearly coupled, one-dimensional oscillators (agents) with up to next-nearest-neighbor interaction is given. Conditions for stability of such system are presented. Our results indicate that the stable systems have response that grow at least linearly in the system size. We give criteria when this is the case. The dynamics of these systems can be described with traveling waves with strong damping in the high frequencies. Depending on the system parameters, two types of solutions have been found: damped oscillations and reflectionless waves. The latter is a novel result and a feature of systems with at least next-nearest-neighbor interactions. Analytical predictions are tested in numerical simulations

Spreading paths in partially observed social networks

Understanding how and how far information, behaviors, or pathogens spread in social networks is an important problem, having implications for both predicting the size of epidemics, as well as for planning effective interventions. There are, however, two main challenges for inferring spreading paths in real-world networks. One is the practical difficulty of observing a dynamic process on a network, and the other is the typical constraint of only partially observing a network. Using a static, structurally realistic social network as a platform for simulations, we juxtapose three distinct paths: (1) the stochastic path taken by a simulated spreading process from source to target; (2) the topologically shortest path in the fully observed network, and hence the single most likely stochastic path, between the two nodes; and (3) the topologically shortest path in a partially observed network. In a sampled network, how closely does the partially observed shortest path (3) emulate the unobserved spreading path (1)? Although partial observation inflates the length of the shortest path, the stochastic nature of the spreading process also frequently derails the dynamic path from the shortest path. We find that the partially observed shortest path does not necessarily give an inflated estimate of the length of the process path; in fact, partial observation may, counterintuitively, make the path seem shorter than it actually is.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, 1 tabl